证券为啥涨啊涨?谜底在这里!

2019-08-04 21:44 关键词:谜语精选 分类:谜语精选 阅读:1649



1

在昨日国家公布对学前教育的新政后,晚上开始交易的、在美国上市的相关股票走出了暴跌走势,尤其是早前传出过负面新闻的红黄蓝,居然两次触发熔断,最后报收7.83美元一股,跌幅高达52.97%!另一个与早教概念相关的博时乐也下跌了16.71%。考虑到A股也有一些早教概念股,以及昨日部分香港券商重仓的香港细价股暴跌,再考虑到今日是周末,因此对A股今日的走势是相当不乐观的。

果然,上证指数以较大的抛盘略为高开之后便一路走低,最低跌到2657点。但是到了10.30分,也就是开盘后一个小时左右,上证指数与其它主要指数一样,居然成功扭转颓势,走出了一波又一波的上涨行情,最高居然一付要冲击2700点的样子,摸到了2695.57点!这是肿么回事呢?

原来是券商股带头大涨了!之后因为传出油价将迎来下调的消息,导致公共交通板块的涨幅也开始走强,不过这个板块很小(详情可见下表)

今日行业板块中,涨幅超过2%的板块排名表:



(数据来源通达信,下同)

从上表可以看出,总共有10个行业板块的平均涨幅超过了2%,但是其中对市场影响较大的板块分别是证券、房地产与通信设备。

建议读者关注一下总金额这个栏目,可以看出,在那么多涨幅超过2%的板块中,只有券商板块的总成交金额超过了300亿元大关!而通信设备与IT设备加起来,总金额也只有270亿元,房地产这么大个板块,总金额都没有冲过200亿元。

券商板块成为当之无愧的大资金最为看好的龙头板块!

要看业绩,你是看不懂的,最新的三季报显示:整个券商板块,跌了这么久了,估值居然还在高高的山岗上:平均市盈率还有50.64倍!这还不是最糟糕的,最糟糕的是,平均前三季度的业绩也是下降的,幅度还很大,平均是53.79%!

直接上图:



事实上,整个券商板块总共40家证券公司,除了华创阳安一家业绩是同比上涨9.4%的,其余39家券商,业绩同比都是下降的,还有4家,占比高达10%是亏损的!就这样一个板块,到底是什么吸引了大资金敢于在周末入场抢筹码呢?

2

当然,有关科创板的消息是个利好,现在有消息说,很可能在明年上半年就问世,而且为了有一个良好的开端,会选择一些优质公司做榜样,这样券商的投行业务会有一定的起色。市场上有创投概念的股票一涨再涨,俨然已经提前进入牛市了。

再下来,还有放宽再融资条件的利好,不但再融资的用途可以放宽(这意味着可以有更多的理由来要钱),而且要钱的速度原则上可以提高三倍:从过去的间隔18个月缩短到6个月。而且,如果你把募集的钱花光了,项目还没建成,没事,随时可以打报告申请再要。

但是,上面这些还算是小利好,最重磅的、上市公司与证券公司最喜爱的重组政策利好,在今日收盘后出台了,那就是证监会修订发布了《公开发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第26号——上市公司重大资产重组(2018年修订)》。

来自财新社的消息称:为进一步鼓励支持上市公司并购重组,提高上市公司质量,服务实体经济,落实股票停复牌制度改革,减少简化上市公司并购重组预案披露要求,证监会于近日修订发布《公开发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第26号——上市公司重大资产重组(2018年修订)》(证监会公告〔2018〕36号)。

接着,重点来了!

本次修订的主要内容有:

一是聚焦主要交易对方和交易标的核心要素的披露。不再要求披露交易对方业务发展状况、主要财务指标和下属企业名目;对海外并购、招拍挂等交易允许简化或暂缓披露相关情况。

二是增加中介机构核查要求弹性。允许中介机构结合尽职调查的实际进展披露核查意见。

三是在已明确交易标的的前提下,不再强制要求披露标的预估值或拟定价,便于交易各方更充分地谈判博弈。

四是在充分披露相关风险的前提下,不再要求披露权属瑕疵、立项环保等报批事项,本次交易对公司同业竞争、关联交易的预计影响,相关主体买卖股票自查情况。

3

不知道其他投资者看了后啥感觉,我看了后感觉心跳明显加快!

恕我愚钝,万分盼望明天证监会说我理解错了。

我比较浅显地理解为:上市公司重组要买啥资产,不用告诉投资者买的资产质量如何、交易对方业务发展状况、主要财务指标、还有哪些枝枝蔓蔓的下属公司,都不用汇报了,想买啥你自己看着办!这等于是家长对进入婚嫁的孩子说:找对象不用告诉我,长啥样、家庭条件啥样,我都不想知道了,直接生孩子吧,我负责给你开路条,你凭路条去要奶粉钱、抚养费就行了。

这到底是被骗怕了,知道怎么问也问不出真话来的无奈放弃呢?还是彻底的不想负责任了呢?

二是增加中介机构“核查要求”的弹性?嗯,你想核查就核查,不想核查就不用核查了,我想要求高点就要点,低点就低点,你可以先看着办?要不这弹性指的是啥?

第三条、第四条,我基本已经要昏过去了:啥?交易标的的预估值与拟定价也不用公布了?然后不再要求披露瑕疵、立项环保、对同业竞争、关联交易的预计影响,对相关主体买卖股票的自查情况?天啊,真是够放心的,一句在充分披露相关风险的前提下,就把上述这么多重要的信息披露责任给豁免了?

这意思是,正儿八经地发了一个文件,告诉大家,重组这事儿证监会不管了?

如果我的理解没错,重组的狂欢盛宴不日开席,券商们的好日子可不是要来了吗?

如果认同这个逻辑的,可以考虑券商B(150201)与证券B(502012),这两只分级基金价格杠杆水平差不多,前者溢价较低,成交量也大些,后者是净值的杠杆大一些。

而如果担心杠杆风险过高的,可以直接买证券类的指数基金。场内也有多款可以选择。

详情可见下表(表中名称带证券的都是证券类的ETF类指数基金):



当然,个股选择能力强的,可以直接选择投行力量较强的券商持有。

平点金基已关联讯飞快读基金 小程序~

双语阅读~

Why did the securities rise? The answer is here!

After the country announced the new certificate for pre-school education yesterday, the related stocks that started trading in the US and went public in the US went out of the plunging trend, especially the red, yellow and blue that had passed the negative news earlier, actually triggered the fuse twice, and finally reported Received a price of 7.83 US dollars, a drop of 52.97%! 

Another Bo Shile related to the concept of early education also fell by 16.71%. Considering that A shares also have some early education concept stocks, as well as Hong Kong penny stocks that have been heavily hoarded by some brokers yesterday, and then consider that today is the weekend, so the trend of A shares today is quite pessimistic.

Sure enough, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower with a larger sell-off, and fell to a minimum of 2,657 points, which is about an hour after the opening. The Shanghai Composite Index, like other major indices, has successfully reversed the trend and has come out one after another. Wave's rising market, the highest actually pays to hit 2700 points, touched 2695.57 points! Is this swollen?

It turned out that brokerage stocks took the lead! Later, because of the news that the oil price will usher in the downward adjustment, the increase in the public transportation sector has also begun to strengthen, but this sector is very small (see the table below for details)

In today's industry sector, the sector rankings that rose by more than 2%:

(Data source access letter, the same below)

As can be seen from the above table, there are a total of 10 industry sectors with an average increase of more than 2%, but the sectors that have a greater impact on the market are securities, real estate and communication equipment.

Readers are advised to pay attention to the total amount of this column. It can be seen that in so many sectors with more than 2% increase, only the total turnover of the brokerage sector exceeded the 30 billion mark! The total amount of communication equipment and IT equipment is only 27 billion yuan. The real estate is such a large sector, and the total amount has not exceeded 20 billion yuan.

The brokerage sector has become the most optimistic leader in big money!

To see the performance, you can't understand: The latest three quarterly reports show that the entire brokerage sector has fallen for so long, and the valuation is still on the high hills: the average price-earnings ratio is 50.64 times! This is not the worst. The worst thing is that the average performance in the first three quarters has also dropped, and the range is still very large, with an average of 53.79%!

Directly above:

In fact, the entire brokerage sector has a total of 40 securities companies, except for Huachuang Yang'an, which has a 9.4% year-on-year increase. The remaining 39 brokers have shown a year-on-year decline in performance, and there are 4, accounting for up to 10%. of! In this way, what attracted the big funds to dare to grab chips on the weekend?

Of course, the news about the science and technology board is a good news. Now there is news that it is likely to come out in the first half of next year, and in order to have a good start, we will choose some high-quality companies to set an example, so that the investment banking business of the brokers will have certain improvement. Stocks with venture capital concepts in the market have risen and risen, and they have already entered the bull market ahead of time.

Next, there is a positive relaxation of refinancing conditions, not only can the use of refinancing be relaxed (which means there can be more reasons to ask for money), and the speed of money can be tripled in principle: from the past interval 18 months shortened to 6 months. Moreover, people said that only you can spend money in time, the project is not completed, nothing, you can apply to the CSRC and report at any time.

However, the above are still small profits, the most important, and the favorite policies of listed companies and securities companies are favorable. They were introduced after the close today, that is, the CSRC revised and released the information disclosure format and format of the company that publicly issues securities. Guideline No. 26 - Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies (Revised in 2018).

According to the news from Caixin News Agency, in order to further encourage support for mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, improve the quality of listed companies, serve the real economy, implement the reform of the stock suspension and resumption of trading system, and reduce the disclosure requirements for the merger and acquisition of listed companies, the CSRC recently revised and released Corporate Information Disclosure Content and Format Guidelines for Public Offering of Securities No. 26 - Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies (Revised in 2018) (CSRC Announcement [2018] No. 36).

Then, the focus is coming!

The main contents of this revision are as follows: First, focus on the disclosure of the core elements of the major counterparties and the subject matter of the transaction. It is no longer required to disclose the business development status, major financial indicators and subordinate business names of the counterparty; it is allowed to simplify or suspend disclosure of relevant transactions for overseas mergers, acquisitions, auctions and other transactions. The second is to increase the flexibility of intermediaries' verification requirements. 

Intermediaries are allowed to disclose verification opinions in conjunction with the actual progress of due diligence. Third, under the premise that the subject matter of the transaction has been clearly defined, it is no longer mandatory to disclose the target estimate or the proposed price, so that the parties to the transaction can negotiate the game more fully. 

Fourth, under the premise of fully exposing the relevant risks, it is no longer required to disclose the matters of approval for ownership, environmental protection, etc., the expected impact of the transaction on the company's horizontal competition and related party transactions, and the relevant entities to buy and sell stocks.

I don't know if other investors have seen it. After I saw it, I felt that my heartbeat was obviously speeding up!

Forgive me for being dull, I hope that the Securities and Futures Commission will say that I understand it wrong tomorrow.

I understand it relatively plainly: the listed company reorganization should buy assets, do not tell investors how the quality of the assets bought, the business development status of the counterparty, the main financial indicators, and the subordinate companies that have branches and branches, do not need to introduce, If you want to buy, you can buy it! This is equivalent to the parents saying to the children who entered the marriage: I don’t have to tell me the object, the long-term, the family conditions, I don’t want to know, just give birth to the child, I am responsible for giving you a way, you go with the road It is enough to pay for milk powder and maintenance.

In the end, this is being deceived. I know how to ask and can’t ask the truth to give up. Still completely do not want to be responsible?

Second, increase the flexibility of intermediaries' "verification requirements"? Um, if you want to check, you will check it. If you don't want to check it, you don't need to check it. I want to ask for a high point. The low point is low. Can you look at it first? Does this elasticity mean ?

Articles 3 and 4, I have basically passed out: huh? The estimated value of the transaction target and the proposed pricing are not required to be announced? Then, it is no longer required to disclose the expected impact of defect, project environmental protection, competition for the same industry, related party transactions, and self-inspection of the relevant entities to buy and sell stocks? God, it’s really reassuring. Under the premise of fully exposing the relevant risks, all the responsibilities are exempted.

This means that a document has been issued to tell everyone that the reorganization of the matter will not matter the CSRC?

If my understanding is correct, the reunification of the carnival feast will not open, the good days of the brokers are not coming?

If you agree with this logic, you can consider brokerage B (150201) and securities B (502012). The price levels of these two graded funds are similar. The former has a lower premium and the volume is larger. The latter is a larger leverage.

If you are worried that the risk of leverage is too high, you can buy stock index funds directly. There are also a variety of options available on the court.

The details can be seen in the following table (the ETF index funds with securities in the name of the list are:)

Of course, if the stock selection ability is strong, you can directly choose the brokerage firm with strong investment banking power.

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